5.5% More Holiday Spending: How Much Will Your Business Capture?

The 2026 holiday shopping season could be one of the strongest in years—and that creates a major opportunity for local businesses.

U.S. retail sales are expected to increase 5.5% year over year during the 2026 holiday shopping season, which would represent the strongest holiday growth since 2022. The forecast covers the critical shopping period from November 1 through December 24.

Consumers are expected to spend more. The question for local businesses is simple:

How much of that additional spending will happen with you?

More Spending Doesn't Automatically Mean More Sales

When national retail sales increase, every retailer doesn't automatically receive a 5.5% boost.

Businesses still have to compete for those dollars.

During November and December, consumers are bombarded with messages from Amazon, Walmart, Target and other major national brands. Their advertising follows shoppers across television, streaming services, websites, social media, email and mobile devices.

Local businesses can't simply open their doors and expect shoppers to remember them.

You have to give consumers a reason to think local—and you have to remind them often.

That's where local advertising becomes especially important.

Advertising Keeps Your Business in the Conversation

Holiday shoppers make hundreds of decisions: Where should I buy a gift? Where should we eat? Who has the best deal? Where can I find something unique? Who can get this done before Christmas?

Advertising helps put your business into those conversations.

You don't necessarily have to outspend national retailers. You need to make sure your business is visible and memorable in the community you serve.

Radio, local news websites, digital advertising, social media, email marketing and community sponsorships can work together to repeatedly put your name in front of local consumers.

The goal isn't just to tell people that you're open.

The goal is to make your business one of the first names they think of when they're ready to spend money.

Local Businesses Have an Advantage

National retailers have enormous marketing budgets, but local businesses have something they can't easily duplicate: a genuine connection to the community.

Your employees live here. You support local organizations. You sponsor local teams.

You donate to local causes. Your customers know you, and many of them want to support businesses that invest in their community.

But consumers still need reminders.

A strong holiday campaign can combine your local story with a clear reason to buy: a special offer, unique product, holiday service, gift idea, limited-time promotion or simply the convenience of shopping close to home.

That's a message local media can help amplify.

Don't Wait Until December

One of the biggest mistakes businesses can make is waiting until the holiday shopping season is already underway before they begin advertising.

The forecast period starts November 1, and consumers increasingly research, compare and purchase gifts well before Thanksgiving.

That means October is the time to develop your message, determine your budget and build a campaign that can carry your business through November and December.

Consistency matters. Instead of relying on a handful of advertisements immediately before Christmas, businesses should consider building frequency throughout the season.

Be there when consumers start thinking about holiday shopping. Be there when they're comparing options. And be there when they're ready to buy.

Capture Your Share of the Growth

A projected 5.5% increase in holiday retail sales is encouraging news for businesses.

But projections describe what consumers may spend nationally. They don't determine where those dollars will go locally.

That's up to you.

This holiday season, don't allow all of that additional consumer spending to leave your community or automatically flow toward national retailers.

Give shoppers a reason to choose your business—and make sure they hear that reason often enough to remember it.

At MarketShare, we believe effective marketing isn't about advertising everywhere. It's about reaching the right people, with the right message, often enough to influence what they remember when it's time to make a purchase.

The 2026 holiday shopping season is approaching.

Consumers are expected to spend more. Make sure your business is positioned to capture its share.

MarketShare is presented by Radford Media Group, helping local businesses better understand advertising, branding and marketing in today's changing media landscape.